I recently came across a troubling article in the Taiwan News. It refers to a video reposted by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) that threatens to use nuclear bombs against Japan if they interfere with an invasion of Taiwan.
Recorded in Chinese, the video vows that China will abandon its “no first use” nuclear policy to destroy Japan. It goes on to boast about China’s military might and threaten that Okinawa will be broken off from Japan and taken by either China or another country.
While it would be easy for Americans to give a collective shrug, that’s probably not a good idea. The US is obligated by the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan to defend Japan if it is attacked. Given the treaty along with the Taiwan Relations Act, not to mention our strong interests in both countries, it is almost a certainty that a war with either Taiwan or Japan would lead to a war with the United States.
I personally think that a war with China, even if only a limited proxy war, is coming soon. I base this opinion on China’s growing aggressiveness. I also think that China might see a military conflict as a way to take the world’s attention off the Covid-19 pandemic, a virus that some believe may have originated from a bioweapon lab in Wuhan.
I found a current, and very detailed, comparison of our respective militaries on Globalfirepower. Upon review, it becomes clear that a true all-out war between China and the US would be a prolonged and difficult endeavor for either side. This doesn’t even consider the implications of nuclear weapons being used, which could change the entire war in minutes.
My takeaway on this is that we’re living in dangerous times. The US faces many potential enemies, including China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran to name but a few. Worse yet, if a war were to break out, it is possible that our enemies will unite, just as our allies will hopefully move to stand beside us. With modern military powers, the next world war will be unlike anything ever seen. Fortunately, for now, our enemies seem content to engage in small proxy wars. But a miscalculated overly bold endeavor could well lead to all-out global war.
The world has always been a dangerous place, so I don’t want to leave you with the message that we should be afraid. On the contrary, my advice is to simply stay alert, watching for signs of things to come. Also, keep in place solid preparations that would allow your family to survive should our infrastructures collapse due to war or other challenging events. No one knows what tomorrow will bring, but one thing we know for sure is that challenges await. Be prepared.
Stay safe,
Arthur Bradley, Ph.D.